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Predictive Modeling

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Development of Churn Prediction Model for a Fitness Brand

How we helped a fitness brand to reduce their customer attrition rate


A fitness brand faced an increase in the customer attrition rate increased due to cancellations of subscriptions.

Merilytics partnered with the company to identify customers who are likely to cancel their subscription in near future so that they can proactively target them with appropriate preventive actions

Our Value Addition

  1. Built a predictive model that estimates a customer’s propensity to churn in a future period based on the historical characteristics and behaviour
  2. The model also helped in identifying factors that drive ‘churn’ (cancellation of subscription)
  3. Used advanced classification algorithms such as Random Forest, Adaboost and Logistic Regression to classify customer subscriptions
  4. Used SMOTE sampling technique as the data set had ‘churns’ as a very small minority class and the cost of misclassification of ‘churns’ was high


  1. The churn prediction model helped the client to identify top-100 ‘at risk’ customers with 66% precision
  2. The predictive model enabled the company to “treat” these customers through most suitable incentives and campaigns to prevent them from cancelling their subscription in the short-term


precision in risk identification
Increase in Life Time Value (LTV)
Reduction in Client Attrition
The analysis is fascinating. Everything is as expected with the models – we want to operationalize them and run them on a regular basis.

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